Australia has become one of the toughest places in the world to afford a packet of cigarettes. Legal tobacco prices have almost tripled since December 2016, largely because of repeated increases in tobacco excise, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Yet despite the financial pressure, smoking has not disappeared. The reason is simple: nicotine dependence, habit, social patterns, and the availability of cheaper alternatives all continue to shape behaviour long after price rises make smoking harder to sustain.
Price alone does not end addiction
Cigarettes are not an ordinary consumer purchase. For many smokers, the decision to buy is not based only on price, branding, or convenience. Nicotine creates a powerful cycle of dependence, and quitting often requires more than a financial incentive.
Australia’s public health data shows that higher prices and stronger tobacco controls have made a difference. Daily smoking among people aged 14 and over fell from 24 percent in 1991 to 8.3 percent in 2022 to 2023, according to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. More recent reporting on the 2025 National Drug Strategy Household Survey puts the daily smoking rate at 5.6 percent, the lowest level on record.
That is major progress, but it also explains why the rate has not reached zero. A declining trend does not mean every smoker can quit immediately. Some people reduce how much they smoke, switch products, buy less often, or look for lower-priced options rather than stopping altogether.
Why Australian cigarettes cost so much
Tobacco excise is the central reason behind Australia’s high cigarette prices. A parliamentary inquiry reported that the most popular variety of factory-made cigarettes cost $42.99 in September 2025, while the excise on a 20-pack was $30.57, or 71.5 percent of the total pack cost.
The ABS has also found that legal tobacco prices have increased by an average of 12 percent each year since 2016, driven mainly by successive excise rises rather than changes in production costs. Industry data cited by Tobacco in Australia shows average prices of $39.69 for supervalue packs, $54.99 for mainstream packs, and $60.72 for premium packs.
For a household already managing rent, groceries, transport, and energy costs, a $40 or $50 packet is a serious recurring expense. This is why many adult smokers now treat cigarettes as a carefully rationed purchase rather than a casual habit.
The role of the illicit market
High legal prices have created another complication: a wider gap between taxed and untaxed tobacco. The ABS reports that prices for legal tobacco products have almost tripled since 2016, while estimated prices for illicit tobacco have remained relatively constant.
A parliamentary committee report noted a strong correlation between legal tobacco prices and illicit market share, suggesting that as the price gap widens, some consumers may shift toward cheaper illegal products instead of quitting. This does not make illicit tobacco safe or lawful. It remains unregulated, may not meet Australian product standards, and carries serious legal risks. But it does help explain why high prices alone have not eliminated smoking.
Policy has changed behaviour, not erased it
Australia’s approach has never relied on taxation alone. Plain packaging, graphic health warnings, advertising restrictions, smoke-free public spaces, quit support services, and public education campaigns have all contributed to a long-term fall in smoking.
The introduction of plain packaging in 2012 was followed by a measurable decline in smoking prevalence. A government review found that smoking prevalence fell from an average of 19.4 percent in the 34 months before September 2012 to 17.2 percent in the 34 months after December 2012, with an estimated 0.55 percentage-point reduction attributable to the packaging changes. Cancer Council also reports that a government study found about a quarter of the decline in smoking prevalence between 2012 and 2015 was attributable to plain packaging.
These measures work because they attack smoking from several directions. Taxes reduce affordability, packaging reduces brand appeal, public spaces reduce opportunities to smoke, and health campaigns reinforce the reasons to quit. Still, addiction can outlast convenience, advertising, and even affordability for a period of time.
What smokers actually do when prices rise
When cigarettes become more expensive, smokers do not respond in one uniform way. Some decide to quit and seek support. Others cut down from a pack a day to a few cigarettes. Some delay purchases, share packs, or move to lower-cost products. Others turn to vaping or, unfortunately, illicit tobacco.
The important point is that affordability pressure changes behaviour, but it does not automatically produce cessation. Quitting usually involves breaking a routine, managing withdrawal symptoms, and finding practical support. Price can be the trigger, but it is rarely the entire solution.
For adults who choose to purchase tobacco legally, convenience and product availability still matter. Searches such as buy cigarettes online Australia reflect how consumers look for straightforward access to familiar tobacco products in a market where prices and availability vary significantly. My Cigs Australia is one of the online destinations that Australian adult smokers may come across while researching cigarette options and tobacco-related information.
A realistic view of Australia’s smoking future
Australia has achieved something many countries still struggle with: a sustained, long-term reduction in daily smoking. The latest national data shows adult daily smoking at 5.8 percent, well below the government’s former 2025 target of 10 percent.
But the final phase of reducing smoking is likely to be the hardest. The remaining population of smokers is more likely to include long-term, dependent users, people facing social or economic stress, and those who have not found a quit method that works for them. High prices will continue to discourage new smokers and encourage existing smokers to reconsider their habits, but they cannot single-handedly bring the rate to zero.
Australia’s experience shows that tobacco control works best when pricing, regulation, enforcement, education, and cessation support operate together. Cigarettes may be almost unaffordable, but nicotine dependence is not solved by a price tag alone. That is why smoking rates keep falling, yet have not fallen to zero.
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